Why Scientific Methods Alone Aren't Enough for Climate Technology Innovation
The story of how ethanol (C2H5OH) became a colossal industry worth $114 billion today over the span of 200 years serves as quite an unsettling analogy for those of us facing the climate crisis. This is because we all recognize that we cannot afford to wait two centuries any longer. In 2025, on the TED Countdown Summit stage, Xu Hao confronts this discomfort head-on, delivering a powerful message that the three engines of science, engineering, and business must be ignited 'simultaneously.' I perceived this talk not just as a "good idea," but as a proposal to "fundamentally redesign the way we work." In this article, I attempt to unravel the 'formula for compressed growth' he presented, not merely as an investment opportunity in climate technology, but as a monumental project for reshaping economies and industrial structures, along with you, the readers.
Contents
How to Compress 200 Years of Progress into a Decade
The Science Is Already Here: The Real Bottleneck is 'Scaling Up'
Beyond the 'Green Premium' to a 'Green Discount'
The Orchestra of Innovation: Who Will Conduct?
1. Compressing 200 Years of Formula into 10 Years
We often feel helpless when faced with overwhelming issues, particularly when told there is 'no time.'
The reason Xu Hao mentions the ethanol case is precisely because of that 'time.' The past linear innovation model, which took 200 years from discovery to industrialization—where scientific discovery is followed by an engineering phase and only then business model considerations—cannot keep pace with the urgency of the climate crisis. His assertion, "It actually took ethanol more than 200 years to do so. We simply couldn't wait that long," clearly illustrates the reality we face.
The solution he proposes is surprisingly simple yet fundamental: process all three elements simultaneously.
The secret to further accelerate the process is also simple. Just do them all at once. — Xu Hao Lecture
This is not a slogan to 'rush things.' It means that from the first day a scientist conceives an idea in the lab, engineers need to think about 'how to mass-produce it,' and business experts should consider 'at what price this technology can sell in the market.' This parallel approach implies a fundamental shift in the way we work, representing a core strategy that tackles technical challenges, production costs, and market demands all at once to drastically shorten development times.
2. Science is Already Here: The Real Bottleneck is 'Scale-Up'
Could it be because we've seen too many brilliant ideas remain just as papers?
One of Xu Hao's most intriguing points is the declaration that "the core science needed to solve the climate crisis mostly already exists." Principles for solar power, wind energy, energy storage, and even carbon conversion technologies are already in our hands. While certain areas still require ongoing research, he shifts the focus to engineering implementation, or 'scale-up,' asking, "So it's not the science holding us up. What about engineering?"
He introduces an exciting example with the startup 'Gas-chain' that utilizes CRISPR gene editing technology. They have genetically modified Clostridium bacteria with CRISPR to consume CO2 and produce useful chemicals like butanol. This showcases how synthetic biology and the climate crisis can become solutions to climate issues.
However, the real challenge lies in scaling up successful lab experiments to industrial levels. This involves not only scaling up equipment but also designing cost-effective production processes and utilizing standardized components to build mass production systems that are 'faster and cheaper.' This signifies a vast opportunity for countries with a strong manufacturing base, like Korea, to transition from being a manufacturing giant to a climate technology powerhouse.
3. From 'Green Premium' to 'Green Discount'
No matter how environmentally friendly it is, if it's too expensive, eventually no one will use it.
Even if science and engineering are perfectly prepared, the final hurdle is 'business.' For climate technologies to become a sustainable industry, we must overcome the barrier of the 'green premium,' which means they are more expensive than conventional fossil fuel-based products. Shih Hao goes a step further by proposing the possibility of a 'green discount.'
The case of the Chinese startup Yuanqu is a typical example. They combine industrial waste (calcium) with captured CO2 to produce calcium carbonate more cheaply than through conventional methods. This demonstrates how the 'Carbon-to-Value' approach, which views carbon not as a 'cost' but as a 'resource,' can simultaneously achieve environmental value and economic competitiveness. This ties back to discussions on sustainable business models that go beyond green premiums.
The case of 'Moguang' is also impressive. They have developed a new 'Radiative Cooling' material that lowers surface temperatures without electricity.
Key Performance: Reflects 93% of solar radiation and emits heat into space.
Applications: Can be applied to building roofs, data centers, and warehouses where air conditioning is heavily used to significantly save energy.
Pilot Project: In a pilot project applying this material at Dagu Glacier, it was reportedly able to reduce the glacier's melting rate by up to 80%.
For innovative technology to move from the lab to being chosen by real markets, a business model proving profitability is ultimately essential.
4. The Orchestra of Innovation: Who Will Conduct?
Gathering excellent musicians does not automatically create the perfect symphony.
I understand Shih Hao's proposed convergence model through the analogy of an 'Orchestra of Innovation.' A scientist can create a great score (composer), an engineer can craft perfect instruments (manufacturer), and a business expert can build a dazzling stage (event planner). Yet, if they practice separately in their own rooms, we cannot expect a harmonious performance. What we need is a 'conductor' who can coordinate all of them to play from the same score.
This model is the core philosophy of Tencent's 'CarbonX' program as it strives for Tencent's carbon neutrality goals and activities. It identifies promising climate tech startups and supports the integration of these three elements from the start, operating like well-oiled gears. It aligns with multidisciplinary, project-based team structure emphasized in breaking down silos for organizational design aimed at innovation.
At the end of his lecture, Shih Hao says, "I'm definitely drunk on the possibility of a better and a cleaner future." This is not merely being intoxicated by hope; it is akin to the confidence of someone who has witnessed the 'speed of innovation' exploding when these three axes move simultaneously, which fuels his belief that he can shorten 200 years of history into 10.
In the introduction, I mentioned that I read this lecture as a proposal for 'redesigning the way we work.' Science can no longer change the world on its own. Perhaps this enormous issue of the climate crisis is forcing us to break out of the 'silos' that trap us in our areas of expertise and learn a new way to collaborate towards a single goal. And that approach might be the quickest way to navigate through the treacherous process we once called the 'valley of death' for startups. Is your organization, and the massive orchestra that is our society, ready to play in harmony toward the possibility of a clean future?
People Also Ask
What is needed to accelerate climate tech innovation? According to Xu Hao, scientific discoveries, engineering, and business model development need to occur simultaneously rather than sequentially. This approach can drastically reduce the time from technology development to commercialization.
Can carbon dioxide be transformed into useful materials? Yes, it can. Carbon conversion technology turns CO₂ into chemicals like butanol or materials like calcium carbonate. The lecture introduces the case of a startup called Gasing, which created bacteria that consume CO₂ using CRISPR technology.
Is there really technology to cool without energy? Radiative cooling technology is an example. Special materials reflect most solar heat and release remaining heat into space, maintaining the surface temperature below the ambient temperature without additional energy. It can be applied to buildings, data centers, and urban infrastructure.
What are notable startups in the climate tech field? The lecture mentions Gasing, Yuanqu, and Mogang, which demonstrate the potential of climate technology by converting CO₂ into chemicals, making affordable materials from waste and CO₂, and developing cooling materials without energy, respectively.
How is Tencent responding to climate change? Tencent is setting its own carbon neutrality goals while supporting climate tech startups through programs like CarbonX. It participates in climate action through investments and partnerships that aid the integration of science, engineering, and business.
3-Sentence Summary: How We Approach Climate Technology
The integrated model for climate tech innovation is a strategy that combines science, engineering, and business from the outset. Unlike traditional linear development, this model has scientists, engineers, and business leaders simultaneously considering marketability, regulations, production costs, and technical constraints. The goal is to shorten the development period and increase the success rate of commercialization.
The core sciences needed to address the climate crisis (solar energy, carbon conversion, etc.) have largely been prepared.
True innovation arises from a fusion model that advances science, engineering, and business in parallel from the beginning, rather than sequentially.
Xu Hao claims that through this fusion model, the industrialization process that took ethanol 200 years can be reduced to 10 years for climate technology according to the official TED talk page (English).
EXTERNAL
Official TED Talk Page (English) https://www.ted.com/talks/xu_hao_how_we_re_turning_pollution_into_toys_toothpaste_and_more
Tencent's Carbon Neutrality Goals and Activities https://www.tencent.com/en-us/esg/carbon-neutrality.html
Project Drawdown (Climate Solutions Research Organization) https://drawdown.org/
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